Аналитика » Daily Market Investment Guide

Daily Market Investment Guide

Wednesday, 22 February 2012

Metropol Daily-Insight Chart

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Aluminum, USD/Mt 2,212 3.6% 1.7%
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Wheat, USD/bu 635.25 -0.2% -0.6%
Soybeans, USD/bu 1,274.75 -0.2% 1.0%
 

Major News

Russian Helicopter increased its stake in the Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant to 96.7%, which we expect to trigger a squeeze out offer of RUB 81.20 per share prior to the Ulan Ude May 25 record date

Following approval from the FAS, HMS Group will purchase an additional 11% stake in Dimitrovgradkhimmash. In our view, the market has already priced in the deal.

Transaero will start flying from Vnukovo, which could decrease airline operating efficiency, in our view

News summary by category (click on the news below for the full version)

General News

Transportation

Aeroflot monopoly positions for flights to Italy could suffer from the increased number of airlines allowed to fly

Engineering & Machinery

Russian Helicopter increased its stake in the Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant to 96.7%, which we expect to trigger a squeeze out offer of RUB 81.20 per share prior to the Ulan Ude May 25 record date

Following approval from the FAS, HMS Group will purchase an additional 11% stake in Dimitrovgradkhimmash. In our view, the market has already priced in the deal.


Transportation

Andrey Rozhkov +7 (495) 933 33 16 ext. 1420


Aeroflot monopoly positions for flights to Italy could suffer from the increased number of airlines allowed to fly

AFLT RX: BUY | Fair Value: USD 3.10 | Current Price: USD 1.77 | Upside/Downside: 75%

According to Vedomosti, the Russian and Italian Transport Ministries agreed to increase the number of flights between Russia and Italy by 60% to 56 per week. Routes may also be opened to other airlines.

The decision could have a negative impact on Aeroflot, which could lose market share in the profitable Russia-Europe segment. Awarding routes to additional airlines will introduce greater price competition, pushing fares down. Although Italian routes contribute only 4.7% to Aeroflot’s revenue, we anticipate further negative fallout as the Russian Transport Ministry could consider a similar decision regarding routes to France and the Netherlands, routes in which Aeroflot currently has a monopoly position among Russian airlines.

Anna Dolaychuk / +7 (495) 933 33 16 ext. 1374 /


Engineering & Machinery

Andrey Rozhkov +7 (495) 933 33 16 ext. 1420


Russian Helicopter increased its stake in the Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant to 96.7%, which we expect to trigger a squeeze out offer of RUB 81.20 per share prior to the Ulan Ude May 25 record date

UUAZ RX: UNDER REVIEW | Current Price: USD 2.56

Russian Helicopters announced yesterday that following a buyback from minority shareholders, the company increased its stake in Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant from 84.8% to 96.7%. With conditions for a mandatory buyout offer in place, we expect Russian Helicopters to make squeeze out offer in near future. We anticipated an offer price of RUB 81.20 per share since by law the mandatory offer cannot be lower than the previous voluntary buyback offer.

Yesterday Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant also set a record date of May 25 for its AGM. In our view, Russian Helicopters is likely to complete the squeeze out before the record date to avoid dividend payments to minority shareholders.

Given the current market price of RUB 77 per share and a squeeze out price of RUB 81.20, we recommend buying Ulan Ude now to take advantage of the gain.

Alexander Marinov / +7 (495) 933 33 16 ext. 1427 /


Following approval from the FAS, HMS Group will purchase an additional 11% stake in Dimitrovgradkhimmash. In our view, the market has already priced in the deal.

HMSG LI: BUY | Fair Value: USD 10.30 | Current Price: USD 4.81 | Upside/Downside: 114%

Following approval by the FAS, HMS Group will purchase an additional 11% stake in Dimitrovgradkhimmash (DGHM), a Russian manufacturer of equipment for the petrochemical industry. HMS will pay RUB 206mn for the stake, with the transaction increasing HMS’ overall owneship in the company to 51%.

For the full year 2011, DGHM reported revenue of RUB 1.6bn, with EBITDA of RUB 387mn. 2011 EBITDA margin was 24.5%, which is higher than the HMS Group’s EBITDA margin of 20%. According to our estimates, the acquisition will increase HMS Group’s 2012 revenue by 7%, while 2012 EBITDA should increase by 8%.

Given our projections for DGHM revenue and EBITDA for the full year 2012 and the deal value, we calculate that DGHM was valued at 2012E EV/S of 0.9x and a 2012E EV/EBITDA of 4.1x, which is close to the multiples for HMS Group.

The transactionwas expected by the market, so we believe that it is already priced in. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and our fair value of USD 10.30 per GDR.

Alexander Marinov / +7 (495) 933 33 16 ext. 1427 /


Short news

Consumer Goods

  • According to ISO, global sugar output is expected at 173mn tonnes for the 2011 agricultural season, exceeding global consumption by 5.2mn tonnes. Consequently, sugar prices should remain low through the next few months. In our view, this is positive for domestic importers of raw sugar such as Rosagro.

Economics

US

  • Today the US is scheduled to publish the following macroeconomic statistics:
    • Existing home sales for January (the consensus is an increase of 1.1% m-o-m)

Metals & Mining

  • According to the World Steel Association, global crude steel production in January was flat m-o-m at 116.7mn tonnes, but down by about 8% y-o-y on lower output in China and elsewhere in Asia. The capacity utilization rate was slightly up m-o-m to 71% (although lower compared to the 81% level in January 2011). We expect global output to revive in the coming months on an improving global growth outlook going into the start of the construction season.

Oil & Gas

  • Yesterday Bashneft and LUKOIL won an auction on three oil fields in the Nenets region, paying 140 times more than the start price. Bashneft paid USd 4.5 bbn for two fields, which is much higher than the USD 0.6 per bbl paid for Trebs-Titov. We consider the price to be very high and expect limited negative impact on Bashneft’s stock price.

  • Yesterday LUKOIL CEO Vagit Alekperov said that company plans to invest USD 155 bn through 2012. Previously, management stated that the company would invest a total of USD 48bn between 2012 and 2014, with CAPEX of USD 13.8 bn planned for this year. The company will present its strategic plan on March 14, which should clarify the figures.

Transportation

  • As of May 12, Transaero will add flights from Moscow’s Vnukovo airport to its schedule. Domodedovo will continue to serve as base for the airline, which offers flights from Moscow Sheremetyevo as well. In our opinion, adding flights from Vnukovo could have a negative impact on connections and operating efficiency.

Engineering & Machinery

  • Rostvertol will hold an AGM on June 2 with a record date of April 20. We expect a 2011 dividend of RUB 0.09 (USD 0.003) per share to be approved, for an expected dividend yield of 4.2% at the current price.

Top Gainers
MICEX, 1-day MICEX, 1-week
PRMB, AKB Primorye +20.0% TUCH-001D, Tuchkovsk. CSM 001D +121.3%
ODVA, O2TV +17.4% TUCH, Tuchkovsk. CSM +70.7%
TUCH, Tuchkovsk. CSM +12.0% MFBA, Moskovskaya Fond. Birja OAO ao +64.7%
KRKOP, TKZ Krasny Kotelshchik ap +12.0% RBCM, RBK ao +39.0%
CHSBP, Chita Energo Sbyt (pref) +11.7% OMSH, Omskshina ao +18.4%
PMOT, Permskie motory +8.4% PRIN, Proektnie Investitsii +17.5%
OMSH, Omskshina ao +7.1% ODVA, O2TV +17.3%
MMBM, Bank Moskvy +5.4% KRKOP, TKZ Krasny Kotelshchik ap +16.7%
PMSB, Perm' EnergoSbyt +4.9% PKBA, Baltika +15.8%
RSAM, Russkie Samotsvety ao +4.6% ROST, ROSINTER RESTAURANTS ao +14.7%

Top Losers
MICEX, 1-day MICEX, 1-week
IGSTP, Izhstal ap -16.7% ORSBP, Orelenergosbyt (pref) -21.8%
IVSBP, Ivenergosbyt ap -15.9% SARE, SaratovEnergo ao -19.7%
VJGZP, Var'eganneftegaz ap -15.8% VGSBP, Volgograd Energo Sbyt (pref) -19.0%
TLSB, Tulaenergosby ao -13.6% TLSB, Tulaenergosby ao -16.3%
TOSB, Tomskenergosbyt ao -13.0% VJGZP, Var'eganneftegaz ap -15.8%
ORSBP, Orelenergosbyt (pref) -12.2% IGSTP, Izhstal ap -11.8%
TOSBP, Tomskenergosbyt (pref) -10.8% VGSB, Volgograd Energo Sbyt -9.6%
ARSB, Аrhenergosbyt ao -10.0% ETGK, TGK-13 -8.9%
OMZZP, OMZ (pref) -9.8% HALS, Gals-Development ao -7.7%
VGSBP, Volgograd Energo Sbyt (pref) -9.0% CHSB, Chita Energo Sbyt -7.5%

Equity Ratings/Performance (Fair Value and Last Price are in USD)
Automotive Ticker Rating Last
Price
Fair
Value
Upside/
Downside
MC,
USD mn
EV/EBITDA P/E Share price performance
10 11E 12E 10 11E 12E 1-day 5-day 1M YTD 1-yr
AVTOVAZ AVAZ RX N/R 0.79 n/a n/a 1 433 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -2% 1% 6% 18% -23%
Sollers SVAV RX Buy 13.96 26.40 89.1% 478 8.5 5.4 5.1 < 0 6.7 5.5 0% 6% 31% 37% -33%
GAZ Group GAZA RX Buy 33.24 64.00 92.6% 616 6.1 4.3 3.7 8.7 6.1 3.9 -3% 0% 23% 15% n/a
KAMAZ KMAZ RX N/R 1.56 n/a n/a 1 103 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -1% -7% 18% 32% -43%
Median 7.3 4.9 4.4 8.7 6.4 4.7
Banking Ticker Rating Last
Price
Fair
Value
Upside/
Downside
MC,
USD mn
P/BV P/E Share price performance
10 11E 12E 10 11E 12E 1-day 5-day 1M YTD 1-yr
Sberbank SBER RU Buy 3.23 4.82 49.1% 69 769 2.1 1.6 1.3 11.5 6.5 6.3 -2% 0% 18% 44% -4%
Sberbank (pref) SBERPS RU Buy 2.49 3.70 48.8% 2 486 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0% 0% 16% 25% 10%
VTB Bank VTBR LI Buy 4.74 7.70 62.6% 24 771 1.3 1.1 1.0 12.6 7.1 6.1 -1% 0% 15% 31% -27%
NOMOS Bank NMOS LI Buy 13.85 16.64 20.1% 2 560 1.3 1.0 0.8 9.6 9.3 5.9 0% 5% 41% 46% n/a
Bank St. Petersburg BSPB RX Buy 2.91 5.00 71.8% 875 0.9 0.7 0.6 5.9 4.3 3.7 -2% -1% -1% 19% -48%
Bank St. Petersburg (pref) BSPBP RX Buy 3.67 4.93 34.5% 313 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1% 0% 3% 21% -37%
Bank Vozrozhdenie VZRZ RX Buy 22.53 34.97 55.2% 535 0.9 0.9 0.8 28.9 11.4 6.0 -1% -2% 16% 23% -46%
Bank Zenit ZENT RU Buy 0.04 0.12 192.5% 462 0.7 0.6 0.5 5.2 3.8 3.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Uralsib Bank USBN RX Buy 0.0043 0.0055 27.1% 1 266 0.7 0.6 0.6 32.2 25.8 6.8 1% 2% 3% 0% n/a
Halyk Bank (Kazakhstan) HSBK LI Buy 5.60 9.37 67.3% 1 832 0.9 0.9 0.8 8.8 8.8 7.4 -1% 0% 10% 15% -47%
Kazkommertsbank (Kazakhstan) KKB LI Buy 3.30 4.33 31.2% 1 286 0.5 0.4 0.4 8.4 4.6 3.6 -1% 1% 3% 22% -55%
Median 0.9 0.9 0.8 9.6 7.1 6.0
Chemicals Ticker Rating Last
Price
Fair
Value
Upside/
Downside
MC,
USD mn
EV/EBITDA P/E Share price performance
10 11E 12E 10 11E 12E 1-day 5-day 1M YTD 1-yr
Uralkali URKA LI U/R 40.31 n/a n/a 24 949 31.7 26.3 18.8 32.8 30.9 17.6 0% 6% 13% 12% 7%
Consumer Goods Ticker Rating Last
Price
Fair
Value
Upside/
Downside
MC,
USD mn
EV/EBITDA P/E Share price performance
10 11E 12E 10 11E 12E 1-day 5-day 1M YTD 1-yr
Magnit MGNT LI Hold 27.90 29.30 5.0% 12 412 22.3 14.7 11.3 37.2 29.6 25.2 1% 0% 21% 32% 1%
X5 Retail Group FIVE LI Buy 26.35 43.50 65.1% 7 148 13.2 10.4 7.4 34.6 51.2 24.0 -3% 5% 19% 15% -35%
Dixy Group DIXY RX Buy 13.45 21.00 56.1% 1 678 18.7 10.1 6.6 134.5 32.8 18.9 2% 4% 26% 36% -6%
M.Video MVID RX Buy 7.81 11.30 44.6% 1 405 9.1 7.3 5.6 19.1 16.6 12.2 0% 3% 12% 28% -19%
Pharmstandard PHST LI Buy 17.7 28.4 60.5% 2 674 7.5 6.2 6.0 11.4 9.4 9.3 1% 3% 24% 25% -37%
Protek Group PRTK RX Buy 0.83 1.55 87.3% 436 4.7 4.5 3.1 13.8 13.8 8.3 -2% 12% 36% 36% -54%
Ukrproduct (in GBP) UKR LN Buy 0.15 0.46 209.2% 6 2.3 2.2 1.3 5.0 7.4 5.0 -1% -1% 27% 20% -42%
Cherkizovo Group CHE LI N/R 13.20 n/a n/a 853 7.8 6.7 4.7 6.6 7.5 5.0 0% 0% 11% 20% -39%
Veropharm VRPH RX N/R 31.28 n/a n/a 313 4.5 3.7 3.2 8.0 6.4 5.5 -1% 4% 6% 5% -30%
Rosinter ROST RX N/R 5.47 n/a n/a 89 3.7 7.9 4.4 7.8 22.8 8.5 -3% 15% 26% 24% -77%
Pharmacy Chain 36.6 APTK RX N/R 1.52 n/a n/a 160 7.2 5.9 5.4 < 0 < 0 < 0 -3% 0% -3% 18% -57%
Synergy SYNG RX N/R 19.64 n/a n/a 504 5.3 5.4 4.5 5.8 8.0 6.6 3% 0% -3% 30% -54%
Razgulay GRAZ RX N/R 0.90 n/a n/a 142 7.4 6.5 6.1 < 0 < 0 4.5 -1% -1% -1% 10% -64%
O'Key Group OKEY LI N/R 8.50 n/a n/a 2 280 12.0 9.1 6.6 25.0 16.3 11.6 1% 3% 21% 24% -27%
Median 7.4 6.6 5.5 12.6 15.1 8.5
Infrastructure Ticker Rating Last
Price
Fair
Value
Upside/
Downside
MC,
USD mn
EV/EBITDA P/E Share price performance
10 11E 12E 10 11E 12E 1-day 5-day 1M YTD 1-yr
Mostotrest MSTT RU Buy 6.45 10.10 56.6% 1 820 6.3 6.2 4.8 15.8 11.9 8.8 0% -1% 11% 8% -23%
Mashinostroitelny Zavod MASZ RU U/R 80.00 n/a n/a 114 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 0% 0% 0% -6% -70%
Priargunsk Plant PGHO RU U/R n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrates Plant NZHK RU U/R 5.70 n/a n/a 139 2.8 2.6 2.3 8.9 7.9 6.2 0% 0% 4% 4% -12%
Volgomost VLGM RU Buy n/a 105.00 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Mostostroy-11 MSTS RU Buy n/a 2 120.00 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Mostostroitelny Otryad 19 MSOT RU Sell n/a 455.00 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Bamtonnelstroy BTST RU U/R 950.00 n/a n/a 94 1.9 1.8 1.4 2.2 2.0 1.5 0% 0% 19% -5% 6%
Sib Cement SCEM RU Buy 14.00 31.90 127.9% 425 11.8 3.6 2.8 18.7 5.7 3.7 8% 21% 14% 12% -40%
Iskitimcement ISKC RU Sell n/a 409.00 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Gornozavodskcement GZCE RU Buy 275.00 384.00 39.6% 213 626.8 16.5 7.4 < 0 37.1 12.6 0% 0% 0% 10% 10%
Steppe Cement STCM LN Buy 0.51 1.89 272.9% 91 16.2 7.7 4.9 < 0 25.3 7.2 0% -1% -4% -4% -39%
Metrostroy METP RU Buy n/a 820.00 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Glavmosstroy GMST RU Buy 32.50 108.00 232.3% 63 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 4.2 1.7 0% 0% -3% -13% -35%
Bamstroymekhanizatsiya BMSM RU N/R n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Yamaltransstroy YATS RU N/R n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
AGC Bor Glassworks BORG RU Buy n/a 82.20 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Median 4.6 3.1 2.5 5.9 6.8 4.9
Media & IT Ticker Rating Last
Price
Fair
Value
Upside/
Downside
MC,
USD mn
EV/EBITDA P/E Share price performance
10 11E 12E 10 11E 12E 1-day 5-day 1M YTD 1-yr
CTC Media Inc CTCM US N/R 9.52 n/a n/a 1 498 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -7% -9% -2% 9% -52%
RBC Information Systems RBCI RU N/R n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Armada ARMD RX U/R 9.48 n/a n/a 136 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1% 3% -2% -10% -37%
Mail.Ru Group MAIL LI U/R 34.50 n/a n/a 7 213 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 2% 2% 17% 33% -4%
IBS Group IBSG GR U/R 24.75 n/a n/a 615 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -1% 2% 16% 23% -18%
YANDEX YNDX US U/R 23.57 n/a n/a 7 613 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 7% 13% 26% 20% n/a
Median n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Metals & Mining Ticker Rating Last
Price
Fair
Value
Upside/
Downside
MC,
USD mn
EV/EBITDA P/E Share price performance
10 11E 12E 10 11E 12E 1-day 5-day 1M YTD 1-yr
Norilsk Nickel GMKN RX Buy 190.12 270.50 42.3% 36 243 5.7 5.6 6.0 7.8 8.2 9.2 -2% -2% 4% 14% -17%
Vyksa Pipe VSMZ RX Buy 1 547 2 687 73.6% 2 658 5.6 5.6 4.6 6.9 7.0 5.1 0% -2% 3% 12% -9%
Kuzbass Fuel Company (KTK) KBTK RU Buy 5.30 8.60 62.3% 526 8.1 4.5 3.4 17.7 7.4 5.9 0% 0% 18% 9% -31%
Uralelectromed UELM RU Buy 64.00 127.50 99.2% 325 1.3 1.1 1.0 2.4 1.9 1.8 0% -2% 3% 3% -13%
UC Rusal (in HKD) 486 HK U/R 6.46 n/a n/a 98 147 10.0 10.3 9.4 6.3 6.6 5.5 0% -6% 15% 31% -50%
Novolipetsk Steel NLMK LI U/R 24.47 n/a n/a 14 665 6.6 5.3 4.7 16.4 8.8 7.6 -3% -1% 4% 25% -43%
Severstal SVST LI U/R 14.59 n/a n/a 14 702 7.0 5.2 4.9 26.1 7.3 6.6 -2% -2% 6% 28% -18%
Alrosa ALRS RU U/R 1.13 n/a n/a 8 286 9.9 5.8 5.6 22.5 7.5 7.0 0% -1% 17% 7% n/a
Evraz Group EVR LN U/R 6.51 n/a n/a 8 715 6.4 4.7 4.5 12.8 7.9 6.8 -5% -4% -4% 10% n/a
Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel MMK LI U/R 6.34 n/a n/a 5 445 4.6 3.8 3.2 4.9 5.1 4.0 -1% 0% 12% 30% -54%
Mechel MTL US U/R 10.70 n/a n/a 4 454 5.8 4.5 4.1 6.7 4.0 4.1 0% -5% 3% 26% -64%
TMK TMKS LI U/R 13.05 n/a n/a 3 059 6.9 6.1 5.3 10.2 6.9 4.9 1% 6% 14% 45% -31%
Raspadskaya RASP RU U/R 3.77 n/a n/a 2 944 7.7 5.2 3.3 12.6 7.3 4.3 0% 0% 5% 23% -52%
Kuzbassrazrezugol KZRU RU U/R 0.32 n/a n/a 1 926 4.8 3.7 3.5 7.8 5.0 5.9 0% 3% 29% 58% -25%
Mechel (Pref.) MTL/P US U/R 4.42 n/a n/a 1 227 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -3% -5% 5% 26% -55%
Chelyabinsk Pipe CHEP RX U/R 1.92 n/a n/a 906 6.4 5.5 5.3 5.4 4.3 4.0 -2% -1% -2% 0% -30%
Ashinsky Metallurgical Plant AMEZ RX U/R 0.29 n/a n/a 143 4.4 3.4 2.5 4.1 3.2 2.4 -2% 1% 4% 8% -52%
Median 6.4 5.2 4.6 7.8 7.0 5.3
Oil & Gas Ticker Rating Last
Price
Fair
Value
Upside/
Downside
MC,
USD mn
EV/EBITDA P/E Share price performance
10 11E 12E 10 11E 12E 1-day 5-day 1M YTD 1-yr
Gazprom GAZP RX Buy 6.35 8.00 26.1% 150 219 3.9 2.8 3.2 4.6 3.4 4.0 -1% -1% 3% 10% -5%
Rosneft ROSN RX Buy 7.39 9.00 21.7% 78 357 4.5 3.9 4.5 6.8 5.6 7.2 0% 2% -5% 3% -17%
LukOil LKOH RX Buy 61.78 70.10 13.5% 52 544 3.4 2.7 2.9 5.3 3.9 4.3 -2% -1% 2% 8% -6%
Surgutneftegas SNGS RX Buy 0.97 1.16 20.0% 34 536 3.3 2.8 2.4 6.5 5.6 4.8 -1% 0% 5% 14% -10%
TNK-BP TNBP RX Buy 3.11 3.50 12.5% 46 656 4.7 3.5 3.8 7.1 5.2 5.9 0% 3% 7% 11% 5%
Gazprom Neft SIBN RM Buy 5.15 6.00 16.5% 24 428 4.8 3.4 3.7 7.7 4.5 5.7 0% -1% 2% 3% -1%
Novatek NVTK LI Buy 136.80 175.00 27.9% 41 537 22.9 14.3 13.5 30.5 19.3 18.7 -1% -1% 6% 9% 14%
Tatneft TATN RX Buy 6.32 6.00 -5.1% 13 774 7.1 4.9 5.2 8.5 6.0 6.6 0% 6% 7% 18% 9%
Surgutneftegas (Pref.) SNGSP RX Buy 0.64 0.64 -0.3% 4 944 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -1% 1% 8% 16% 16%
Bashneft BANE RU Buy 57.75 80.00 38.5% 9 827 4.3 4.0 4.6 8.0 5.0 7.1 0% -1% 28% 39% 17%
Eurasia Drilling EDCL LI N/R 26.61 n/a n/a 3 884 8.3 6.1 5.4 16.1 12.1 11.1 0% 1% 5% 13% -12%
Transneft AK (Pref.) TRNFP RX Sell 1 856.38 1 030.00 -44.5% 2 886 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -3% -5% -4% 11% 41%
Nizhnekamskneftekhim NKNC RX Buy 0.92 1.27 37.5% 1 489 3.5 2.9 3.3 5.4 4.0 4.9 0% -3% 16% 22% 18%
Bashneft (Pref.) BANEP RU Buy 43.90 56.10 27.8% 1 520 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0% 4% 13% 34% 22%
Integra INTE LI N/R 2.20 n/a n/a 394 3.5 2.7 2.2 38.9 6.3 3.5 0% 9% 28% 24% -39%
Tatneft (Pref.) TATNP RX Buy 3.36 3.22 -4.2% 496 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1% 2% 4% 14% -1%
CAToil (in Euro) O2C GR N/R 5.79 n/a n/a 283 4.0 3.6 3.3 10.7 8.3 7.5 5% 4% 22% 31% -19%
KazanOrgSintez KZOS RU U/R 0.15 n/a n/a 262 4.5 3.7 3.7 9.1 6.8 6.7 0% 8% 13% 13% -44%
Nizhnekamskneftekhim (pref.) NKNCP RX Buy 0.62 0.76 22.2% 136 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0% 0% -1% 15% 22%
KazanOrgSintez KZOSP RU U/R n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Median 4.4 3.5 3.7 7.8 5.6 6.2
Telecommunications Ticker Rating Last
Price
Fair
Value
Upside/
Downside
MC,
USD mn
EV/EBITDA P/E Share price performance
10 11E 12E 10 11E 12E 1-day 5-day 1M YTD 1-yr
VimpelCom Ltd. VIP US N/R 12.03 n/a n/a 19 587 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -1% 7% 17% 27% -14%
Mobile Telesystems MBT US N/R 17.49 n/a n/a 18 071 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -1% 3% 7% 19% -7%
Sistema SSA LI N/R 20.18 n/a n/a 9 737 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -2% 5% 10% 20% -17%
Rostelecom RTKM RX N/R 5.02 n/a n/a 14 775 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -2% -1% 1% -2% 0%
Median n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Transportation Ticker Rating Last
Price
Fair
Value
Upside/
Downside
MC,
USD mn
EV/EBITDA P/E Share price performance
10 11E 12E 10 11E 12E 1-day 5-day 1M YTD 1-yr
NCSP NCSP LI Buy 7.25 10.40 43.4% 1 862 9.9 8.2 6.7 0.1 0.4 0.1 -1% 1% 3% -3% -30%
Aeroflot AFLT RX Buy 1.77 3.10 75.5% 1 962 5.6 5.9 5.9 7.1 12.3 13.0 -4% -1% 5% 4% -25%
Far Eastern Shipping FESH RX N/R 0.36 n/a n/a 1 053 8.5 7.4 6.4 n/a n/a 35.7 -2% 0% 27% 30% -32%
Globaltrans GLTR LI Buy 17.10 20.30 18.7% 2 704 7.7 6.2 5.8 15.3 12.3 11.8 1% 3% 18% 24% 1%
Vanino Port MTPV RU N/R n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Transaero TAER RX Buy 5.45 9.40 72.5% 838 5.9 8.5 7.2 8.0 54.1 12.3 1% 2% -4% -10% n/a
Global Ports GLPR LI Hold 14.40 16.50 14.6% 2 256 11.1 8.8 7.8 6.6 5.5 4.6 3% -1% 19% 3% n/a
Murmansk Commercial Seaport MSCP RU N/R n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Median 8.1 7.8 6.6 7.1 12.3 12.0
Utilities Ticker Rating Last
Price
Fair
Value
Upside/
Downside
MC,
USD mn
EV/EBITDA P/E Share price performance
10 11E 12E 10 11E 12E 1-day 5-day 1M YTD 1-yr
RusHydro HYDR RX Buy 0.039 0.050 29.0% 11 248 10.3 5.3 4.5 31.2 8.7 3.6 -1% 3% 10% 19% -19%
FGC UES FEES RX Buy 0.0112 0.0134 20.2% 14 006 5.3 4.3 3.5 15.1 12.8 11.9 -2% 0% 4% 18% -17%
OGK-1 OGKA RM Buy 0.025 0.043 69.5% 1 660 6.5 5.2 4.3 15.1 8.4 6.3 -2% -3% 7% 15% -29%
OGK-2 OGKB RM Buy 0.029 0.067 133.8% 938 7.9 4.8 4.8 12.7 5.2 5.7 -1% -2% 11% 13% -43%
OGK-3 OGKC RX Buy 0.038 0.053 40.4% 1 793 3.2 1.0 0.9 < 0 16.1 18.7 0% 11% 21% 31% -18%
E.ON Russia EONR RM Buy 0.094 0.151 61.5% 5 895 11.8 6.4 4.6 17.4 9.6 6.8 0% 3% 14% 30% 10%
OGK-5 OGKE RX Buy 0.070 0.118 68.3% 2 480 10.8 6.0 4.5 20.9 8.7 6.0 -2% -1% 0% 15% -16%
MRSK Holding MRKH RX U/R 0.10 n/a n/a 4 102 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -2% -3% 13% 23% -41%
MRSK Holding (Pref.) MRKHP RX U/R 0.06 n/a n/a 120 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -2% 2% 14% 26% -41%
MRSK of Centre MRKC RX U/R 0.024 n/a n/a 1 023 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1% 0% 14% 18% -45%
MRSK of Centre and Volga MRKP RX U/R 0.006 n/a n/a 650 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1% 5% 22% 18% -47%
MRSK of North Caucasus MRKK RX U/R 2.29 n/a n/a 68 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -2% -1% 18% 33% -53%
MRSK of North-West MRKZ RX U/R 0.0032 n/a n/a 302 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -1% -3% 10% 17% -49%
MRSK of Siberia MRKS RX U/R 0.005 n/a n/a 506 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1% 0% 21% 42% -47%
MRSK of South MRKY RM U/R 0.00 n/a n/a 132 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -2% -2% 11% 19% -45%
MRSK of Volga MRKV RX U/R 0.003 n/a n/a 590 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -2% 1% 18% 7% -42%
MRSK of Urals MRKU RX U/R 0.008 n/a n/a 706 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 2% 5% 15% 23% -18%
MOESK MSRS RX U/R 0.052 n/a n/a 2 529 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0% 1% 2% -4% 4%
Lenenergo LSNG RX U/R 0.37 n/a n/a 343 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0% 0% 1% 11% -59%
Lenenergo (Pref.) LSNGP RX U/R 0.84 n/a n/a 79 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0% -3% 7% 14% -43%
TGK-1 TGKA RX Buy 0.00037 0.00118 217.2% 1 434 5.0 3.6 2.8 6.0 9.7 7.1 1% 0% 23% 18% -42%
Mosenergo MSNG RX Buy 0.063 0.233 268.6% 2 513 3.6 3.1 2.5 7.9 9.0 6.4 0% 0% 7% 10% -37%
Median 6.5 4.8 4.3 15.1 9.0 6.4
Engineering & Machinery Ticker Rating Last
Price
Fair
Value
Upside/
Downside
MC,
USD mn
EV/EBITDA P/E Share price performance
10 11E 12E 10 11E 12E 1-day 5-day 1M YTD 1-yr
SAREX SARX RU U/R n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Kovrov Mechanical Plant KVMZ RU N/R n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Power Machines SILM RX N/R n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Hydraulic Machines and Systems Group PLC HMSG LI Buy 4.95 10.30 108.1% 580 6.1 3.8 3.6 11.8 5.9 5.5 3% -1% 15% 12% -39%
UAC UNAC RX Buy 0.008 0.020 145.7% 1 644 11.7 19.4 8.6 < 0 < 0 < 0 -1% -1% 29% 32% -44%
Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant UUAZ RX U/R 2.63 n/a n/a 704 3.9 3.2 2.9 4.6 4.1 3.8 3% 3% 0% -1% 12%
Kazan Helicopter Plant KHEL RX U/R 3.59 n/a n/a 553 3.1 2.3 2.3 4.2 3.0 3.0 0% 0% 2% 3% 7%
Rostvertol RTVL RU Buy n/a 0.16 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Baltiysky Zavod BALZ RU N/R n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Luga Abrasive Plant LJAZ RU Buy n/a 15 000.00 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Volga Abrasive Plant (Common) VAZZ RU Buy n/a 104.00 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Volga Abrasive Plant (Pref.) VAZZP RU Buy 10.00 34.10 241.0% 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 54% 54% 54% n/a
Motovilikha Plants MOTZ RX N/R 0.13 n/a n/a 130 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -3% 1% 86% 86% 41%
Median 3.9 3.2 2.9 4.4 3.5 3.4
Overall median 6.1 5.2 4.5 8.6 7.3 6.0

Commodities
  Value 1-day
chg
5-day
chg
1M
chg
YTD
chg
1-yr
chg
3-yr
chg
Low 52
week
High 52
week

Energy

Brent, USD/bbl 121.27 -0.3% 2.0% 10.5% 13.8% 15.1% 98.0% 94.31 121.88
WTI, Crude Oil, USD/bbl 105.95 -0.3% 4.8% 7.4% 6.8% 5.8% 70.7% 76.17 114.09
URALS, Crude Oil spot 121.14 0.5% 2.1% 11.6% 14.6% 19.6% 196.1% n/a n/a
GASOLINE, RBOB, USD/gal. 306.25 -0.3% 2.7% 9.8% 15.3% 15.8% n/a 236.88 308.58
NATURAL GAS, USD/MMBtu 2.64 0.4% 4.1% 10.2% -12.6% -43.8% -63.0% 2.29 5.28

Industrial metals

Aluminum, USD/Mt 2 212 3.6% 1.7% 1.3% 10.9% -13.2% 74.3% 1 945 2 772
Copper, USD/ton 8 444 2.6% 0.6% 2.9% 11.2% -14.0% 171.0% 6 784 9 971
Nickel LME spot USD/ton 20 146 2.4% 0.4% -1.3% 7.6% -31.2% 113.9% 16 925 28 950
Zinc, USD/oz 2 006.75 2.4% -0.4% 0.7% 9.8% -21.9% 86.2% 1 748.80 2 496.00

Precious metals

Gold, USD/oz 1 755 -0.2% 1.6% 5.3% 12.3% 25.5% 76.8% 1 381 1 921
Palladium Spot, USD/oz 713 0.4% 4.3% 5.1% 8.7% -11.4% 231.4% 537 861
Platinum Spot, USD/oz 1 704 1.0% 4.2% 11.0% 21.6% -4.9% 57.4% 1 344 1 917
Silver, USD/oz 34.23 -0.2% 2.3% 6.4% 22.9% 3.4% 137.0% 26.07 49.79

Agriculture

Soybeans, USD/bu 1 274.75 -0.2% 1.0% 6.6% 4.7% 1.1% n/a 1 115.50 1 468.50
Wheat, USD/bu 635.25 -0.2% -0.6% 1.1% -5.4% -28.0% n/a 597.50 975.00
Sugar, USD/lb 24.47 2.9% 4.7% 1.1% 6.6% n/a n/a 21.00 28.53
Rice, USD/cwt 14.15 0.6% -3.2% -4.5% -6.5% n/a n/a 13.78 19.22
Coffee, USD/lb 206.05 1.8% 0.0% -9.8% -10.3% n/a n/a 197.80 311.55
Live cattle, USD/lbs 131.10 0.0% 1.4% 2.6% 4.5% 10.2% n/a 115.35 131.28

Other

Steel CIS HR Coil, USD/ton 630 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 9.1% -20.3% 61.5% n/a n/a
Baltic Dry Index 706 -1.3% -3.8% -18.1% -59.4% -45.5% -66.4% 647 2 173

Equity Markets
  Country Value 1-day
chg
5-day
chg
1M
chg
YTD
chg
1-yr
chg
3-yr
chg
Low 52
week
High 52
week
RTS Russia 1 655 0.0% -0.4% 10.6% 19.8% -11.7% 220.0% 1 200 2 134
MICEX Russia 1 559 -1.3% -0.2% 4.5% 11.2% -8.3% 146.8% 1 243 1 865
FTSE Russia IOB Russia 937 -1.2% 0.8% 9.7% 20.4% -10.7% 148.8% 669 1 201
Dollar Index USA 79 0.1% -0.6% -1.3% -1.3% 1.8% -8.5% 73 82

US

NASDAQ COMPOSITE USA 2 949 -0.1% 0.6% 5.8% 13.2% 7.0% 104.6% 2 299 2 965
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG USA 12 966 0.1% 0.7% 1.9% 6.1% 6.2% 76.0% 10 404 13 005
S&P 500 USA 1 362 0.1% 0.8% 3.6% 8.3% 3.6% 76.9% 1 075 1 371

Emerging markets and Eastern Europe

SHANGHAI SE Composite IX China 2 380 -0.1% 0.6% 2.6% 8.2% -16.7% 5.2% 2 133 3 067
BRAZIL BOVESPA Brazil 66 204 0.1% 3.4% 6.2% 16.6% -2.7% 71.0% 47 793 70 108
BSE SENSEX 30 India 18 429 0.8% 3.7% 10.1% 19.2% 0.7% 108.4% 15 136 19 811
ISE NATIONAL 100 Turkey 61 253 -0.3% 2.7% 11.6% 19.5% -5.3% 159.8% 48 600 70 336
TEL AVIV 25 Israel 1 120 0.3% 0.7% -1.4% 3.2% -14.8% 69.0% 983 1 345
ARGENTINA MERVAL Argentina 2 799 1.1% 2.8% -2.4% 13.7% -20.9% 166.9% 2 212 3 545
MEXICO INMEX Mexico 2 137 -1.1% 0.2% 2.1% 4.9% 0.4% 109.4% 1 726 2 208
EGYPT HERMES Egypt 502 -2.0% -0.6% 23.5% 31.6% -7.1% 49.9% 373 599
WSE WIG Poland 42 070 0.1% 1.6% 6.5% 11.9% -9.6% 92.7% 35 349 50 502
BUDAPEST SE Hungary 19 193 -0.8% 0.8% 1.8% 13.1% -15.0% 84.9% 14 623 24 531
PRAGUE SE Czech Republic 1 016 -0.2% 1.1% 8.6% 11.5% -18.2% 56.7% 837 1 278
PFTS Ukraine 563 -0.4% -0.7% 5.2% 5.4% -49.9% 151.4% 501 1 150
KASE Kazakhstan 1 243 -0.3% 0.9% 6.6% 12.4% -31.1% 93.2% 1 058 1 849

Europe

MSCI Europe 92 -0.5% 1.5% 4.1% 8.6% -6.6% 49.0% 73 100
DAX Germany 6 908 -0.6% 2.7% 7.9% 17.1% -5.6% 72.1% 4 966 7 600
CAC 40 France 3 465 -0.2% 2.7% 4.3% 9.7% -14.4% 26.0% 2 693 4 146
FTSE 100 UK 5 928 -0.3% 0.5% 3.5% 6.4% -1.1% 52.4% 4 791 6 104
IND IBEX 35 Spain 8 767 -0.6% -0.1% 2.4% 2.3% -18.1% 15.3% 7 505 10 958
FTSE MIB Italy 16 711 -0.1% 1.6% 6.9% 10.7% -24.0% 7.6% 13 115 22 717
SWISS MARKET Switzerland 6 238 -0.1% 1.2% 1.9% 5.1% -5.8% 28.6% 4 695 6 667
IRISH OVERALL Ireland 3 184 -0.7% 2.9% 5.9% 9.7% 8.9% 53.3% 2 333 3 235
OMX STOCKHOLM 30 Sweden 1 106 -0.5% 3.4% 7.1% 12.0% -0.5% 73.9% 833 1 175

Asia & Pacific

MSCI AC Asia 113 -0.3% 0.2% 6.2% 12.6% -7.0% 62.1% 95 124
S&P Asia 50 CME Hong Kong 3 430 0.1% 0.7% 6.6% 15.2% -0.5% 102.6% 2 656 3 746
TOPIX (TOKYO) Japan 819 0.3% 2.0% 8.4% 12.4% -14.4% 10.8% 704 968
NIKKEI 225 Japan 9 478 0.2% 2.3% 8.1% 12.1% -11.1% 27.8% 8 136 10 768
HANG SENG Hong Kong 21 373 -0.5% 0.0% 6.3% 15.9% -7.0% 68.3% 16 170 24 469
KOSPI Korea (South) 2 023 -0.1% -0.1% 3.7% 10.8% 2.7% 89.8% 1 644 2 231
STRAITS TIMES Singapore 3 003 -0.7% -0.3% 5.4% 13.5% -0.5% 88.3% 2 522 3 227
TAIWAN TAIEX Taiwan 7 985 0.8% -0.3% 10.4% 12.9% -7.9% 80.0% 6 609 9 100
S&P/ASX 200 Australia 4 293 0.0% 0.9% 1.3% 5.8% -11.6% 26.2% 3 766 4 976
S&P Asia 50 Hong Kong 3 430 0.1% 2.8% 6.6% 15.2% -0.5% 102.6% 2 657 3 741

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